The New Iran War

Mar 11, 2026

I have, across many of my articles, bemoaned the warmongering government that controls this country. While Biden seemed destined to blunder into WW3 if re-elected, Trump promised us “no new wars”. The betrayal of that promise was swift, and instead of stumbling backwards into WW3 we are charging headlong toward it.

Wartime Preparedness

Not much has changed regarding the ‘reason’ for this war. You can probably read my article on the last war and swap out dates and it will match pretty well.

President Trump continues to claim we can wage war forever. However, as I have detailed previously, this does not appear to be true from a supply standpoint alone. When you factor in economic and political costs, as well as the depleted American “will for war”, this claim seems far-fetched at best.

As for the preparedness of Iran and Israel, I don’t think much has changed. Iran is dug in and has a natural fortress (read A Wider War: Iran for a recap). Israel is counting on the US to do the heavy lifting and bear the cost of the war.

The USA

Munitions

I don’t want to retype the same content from ‘America’s Waning Power’ & ‘A Wider War: Supply Chain & Munitions’, but a brief ‘refresher’ is probably due, both for newer readers and to emphasize that these issues still exist for America.

In short, as early as 2022 alarm bells began to sound, warning that the Ukraine war was consuming ‘too many munitions’ and that we cannot produce enough for that war and our own training/maintenance needs. A year later, we began subsidizing the israeli genocide circumventing congressional approval to get munitions into zionists’ hands. The specifics can be found in the two articles linked above.

The manufacturing shortage is apparently across every platform as each time I write about this problem I find a new example to use. The exact number of Tomahawk missiles we have isn’t publicly disclosed though most estimates I have come across state the number is around 4,000 [1]. For context, estimates state we used ~800 in the ‘opening salvos’ of our Iraq invasion and we purchased 68, 34 & 22 new missiles in 2023, 2024 & 2025 [2]. We fired 80 Tomahawks at Yemen in the first day, more than we bought any of these years [3]. ONE day against YEMEN consumed 2% of our Tomahawk stores. That is global stockpile, not ‘what is on one ship’, not ‘just for the Middle East’ that is for our actions across the world. In case you haven’t yet read through ‘America’s Waning Power’, if China were to invade Taiwan, it is estimated we would run out of munitions in less than a week (without all these other munition expenditures).

Carriers

I think Yemen showed us how vulnerable carriers are in modern conflicts. During the last exchange, while we thankfully didn’t see one get hit, we saw the chaos that cheap drone swarms can create. Our carrier group ended up ‘shooting down one of our planes’ and, in another instance, we were forced to maneuver so drastically a jet fell into the ocean. It was described as the most intense naval battle since WW2[4]. Yemen doesn’t have a navy and is not as well equipped as Iran.

The War so Far

America has again shown its ability to strike fast & hard. Multiple government officials have touted our ability to ‘blow things up’, highlighting the assassination of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei as evidence of our success. In the first 24 hours of the war we reportedly hit 900 targets, another 300 in the subsequent 24 hours and reaching a total of 1,700 targets within 72 hours [5].

War Crimes

Included in that widely touted target list was an all-girls elementary school, seemingly hit by one of our aforementioned Tomahawk missiles [6]. The death toll is uncertain but estimates are around 180, the list of known victims and their ages is available from Middle East Eye [7]. Many of them are less than 10 years old. Trump, thinking Americans will believe anything he says, blames Iran for bombing the school. That has already been refuted by multiple corporate media sources. The next ‘defense’, if complete denial fails, will be ‘collateral damage’. At one point I might have believed that, but we have a sordid history of covering war crimes. From the genocide in Gaza to the crimes committed on Epstein’s island, far too many ‘world leaders’ have shown how little they care for the innocent and how evil they truly are.

Water War

Iran has accused the United States of attacking Desalination plants [8] and responded by attacking a desalination plant in Bahrain. Iran’s foreign minister stated “Water supply in 30 villages has been impacted. Attacking Iran’s infrastructure is a dangerous move with grave consequences. The US set this precedent, not Iran,”.

Dependency on Desalination (from Al Jazeera [8] unless noted otherwise):

UAE - 42%
Kuwait - 90%
Oman - 86%
Saudi Arabia - 70%
Israel - 75%+ [9]
Iran - 3% [10]

While, as noted by Middle East Forum, Iran may have some water issues, it seems like they are less vulnerable to targeting of water plants. The threat against water is not unnoticed by the Gulf leaders. Tensions between seem to be rising as Israel reportedly leaked ‘misleading’ information linking the UAE to strikes against Iran [11].

Food war

The Gulf states are 90% reliant on food imports, 70% of those imports came through the (now closed) Strait of Hormuz [12]. While the GCC claims they have reserves for months, the threat of scarcity & massive price increases looms. The 20 Fujairah Grain silos hold 300,000 tons of wheat, barley and corn. While rationed portions of grains may keep people alive, I doubt it will keep them very happy.

The Gulf states are not the only ones facing food consequences, roughly a third of the world’s fertilizers typically travel through the Strait [13]. The chart below shows a ~33% increase in price for granular urea (ammonia). In 2022 when the world was exposed to ‘fertilizer shock’ due to the start of the Russia/Ukraine War, prices rose to ~$900 per ton ($250-300 more than they are today depending on which contract you view). CSIS stated “Russia’s invasion of Ukraine pushed global food prices to all-time nominal highs in 2022” [14]. If the supply disruption continues to force fertilizer prices upward, a similar shock could again push global food prices higher.

Stability

The Gulf States, are run by tyrannical dictators who brutally cling to power. The people of these countries largely oppose the alliance with israel and actually see Israel & the US as the biggest threat to the region [15]. While before they had to endure the shame of their government’s action, now they are paying a direct price.

In addition to the threat of incoming munitions, there is a real threat of water scarcity paired with rising risks of food scarcity. Given the political climate and results of previous polling, I am not convinced the people will “rally around the flag” to fight Iran, more likely they will see this as a failure of their own leaders.

Cost

Economic Costs

Crude was at ~$65 before the war, it reached $115 roughly a week into the war. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates that for every $1 increase in oil price, we see a ~2.4 cent increase in gas price[16]. If the war persists and crude prices remain elevated, we could all be paying about $1.20 more per gallon of gas soon enough. This is the ‘at the pump’ effect, but it will spill over into other things like energy bills and even food (due to transportation, production etc).

Financial markets also responded negatively. US markets were down ~3% since the launch of the war. Japan, a strong ally of ours, imports up to 90% of its oil from the Middle East, much of it passing through the Strait of Hormuz [17]. Japan’s Nikkei index was down ~10% and Europe’s STOXX 600 showed a ~7.4% drop since the start of the war. Across the world, our war of choice is having a negative impact.

Note: Trump statements regarding ‘end of the war’ and potential for IEA utilizing oil reserves has caused some stocks & oil prices to ‘recover’ on hopes of peace [20]

Strategic Costs

The lack of coordination supposedly cost us 3 fighter jets which were shot down by our ally Kuwait [18]. Darryl Cooper, of The Martyr Made Substack, discussed the vulnerability of our bases, highlighting the declining interception rate and the damage already done to our assets in the region. This damage includes the radar network we rely on for interceptions, thus exacerbating the problem. Iran has prepared itself to absorb attacks by digging in and distributing resources and segmenting command & control. The plan from our side was to intercept attacks and overwhelm Iran to make them stop before we lost the ability to intercept. Iran is still able to strike and our ability to intercept is declining.

Real Costs

In Common Sense Neutrality Butler asks mothers to ‘hang onto the love you bear your boys’ when you hear a ‘well-delivered war speech’. I ask that we all look to our sons, perhaps now even our daughters. If you are rattling an old sabre, look at your grandkids. Are America’s wars worth sacrificing them? Is our cause so just I can ask my kids to kill for it? If you wouldn’t ask it of your own kids, why do we allow it to be asked of others? Our troops deserve better, their parents deserve better, our kids deserve better. Demand Peace. — Excerpt from ‘War is STILL a racket’

The most costly aspect of this war is the one Trump et al care the least about. At least seven American troops have been sacrificed in this unnecessary endeavor [19]. The reality is the number may be higher given the vulnerability of our forward bases. There are talks of putting troops on the ground, be it special forces or otherwise they will be highly vulnerable. We saw in Afghanistan how even elite troops like SEAL teams can be taken out by MANPAD wielding adversaries in mountainous terrain. Talk of forcing naval vessels into the strait to secure trade is even more dangerous, with limited maneuverability and limited time-to-target for enemy munitions the ships would be exposed and vulnerable.

Planning to Fail

It should be abundantly clear that we didn’t have a ‘long term’ plan here other than ‘kill Iranian leadership’. I wrote ‘American Victory’ to explicitly warn against this kind of ‘no-plan war’ that we continue to find ourselves in. As the collapse of Iran has not come (Iran elected the late Khamenei’s son as the new Ayatollah), we are now in a scenario where there is no clear definition of victory. Trump has stated only ‘unconditional surrender’ will stop the attacks. Iran has existed for thousands of years, it is not going to stop existing because Trump and his leash holder in Israel want it to. If the goal was to kill the Ayatollah, then declare victory and stop the attacks. Seeking unconditional surrender places us on the path of another ‘forever war’ that ends with us bankrupt and our empire in ruin.

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