Trump has drifted further and further from his election winning anti-war message. The war in Ukraine continues and Trump has increased dangerous US-support of Ukrainian strikes within Russia [1]. He touts ‘peace’ in the Middle East, but israel continues bombing Gaza & has killed more than 400 Palestinians since the ‘ceasefire’[2] (all while continuously bombing Lebanon).
Trumps bombing of Iran was perhaps the first major signal that he abandoned his promise of ‘no new wars’ and was insincere in his dedication to peace. We have since continued bombing Somalia and despite the Pope’s call for peace on Christmas, Trump decided to bomb ISIS affiliates in Nigeria [3]. While many try to obfuscate ‘acts of war’ and ‘war’ by the scale of the effort, Trumps posturing towards Venezuela is tilting much more towards our ‘traditional’ regime change disasters.
Attacks on Venezuela
Trump has been ‘ramping up’ his rhetoric towards Venezuela for some time. In September, we crossed from ‘harsh words’ to direct action and have since carried out at least 30 strikes on civilian vessels that were allegedly used for smuggling drugs [4]. Trump recently stated that the United States ‘knocked out’ a facility (a port) in Venezuela, marking the first known land strike [5].
Legality & Ramifications
By labeling cartels & traffickers ‘terrorists’, Trump sought to tap into the wide resources and lack of meaningful oversight we have historically ( & shamefully) allowed in regards to our efforts against ‘terror groups’. It is by this method that Trump is bombing and killing people who would be historically recognized as civilians subject to criminal law, not ‘unlawful combatants’ subject to military action and death. The Royal United Services Institute points out that the ‘long understood’ difference between a ‘criminal enterprise’ (narcotics groups, cartels etc) and a ‘terrorist organization’ are their goals & methods, adding: “A criminal enterprise operates primarily for profit and is countered by civilian law enforcement, while a Foreign Terrorist Organisation pursues ideological/political objectives through violence and can be addressed through military action abroad [6]. Trump’s actions seem to be further blurring the lines between combatants & civilians in a world already with far too many civilian deaths.
The war on drugs has, in my opinion, been the main justification for the ‘war on our rights’ & the militarization of domestic police forces. Now, with cartels being labeled ‘terrorist groups’, a wide net of people & organizations could, in theory, be labeled as ‘supporters’ of terrorism for something as simple as providing food services to migrants [7]. We should want fewer no-knock raids in the US and this seems to pushing us towards more.
It is also important to note, that the list of cartel ‘terror groups’ were not confined to any specific country & there is a real risk of the ‘mission’ against these groups to spread into other nations. Even cartel fears of such actions could have destabilizing effects in otherwise ‘friendly’ nations.
Congress
Each President since 9/11 has abused the post-9/11 Authorizations for Use of Military Force. Congress, by failing to reign in powers of the President, allows the Executive to act as judge, jury & executioner. Unsurprisingly, Congress (again) refused to exercise its Constitutional duties and by failing to pass a War Powers resolution they have effectively ceded more power to the President [8]. Trump has stated that he likely will not seek congressional approval for his war and that “we’re just going to kill people that are bringing drugs into our country” [9]. By allowing these strikes to continue (and expand) without a declaration of (or even debate on) war, Congress is clearing the way for the President to drag us into a regime change war with Venezuela.
Population & Economy
The population of Venezuela is 31 million people. The majority of people are Christian, however, there are differing estimates for adherents to denominations. CIA Factbook claims 48% Catholic & 31%protestant. The Association of Religion Data Archives claims >90% are Catholic [10]. The population is densest in the north, near the coastline.
The Unemployment rate is reportedly only ~5.5% though a 2015 estimate states that at least 33% live in poverty [11], more recent estimates claim >80% are in poverty [12]. Crude petroleum accounts for about half of Venezuela’s exports, the US was their largest trading partner in 2023, then China & Spain [13].
Geography & Terrain
Venezuela is ~35% larger than Texas, 2.5x larger than Germany, >1.5x the size of France and 2x the size of Iraq [14]. The terrain of Venezuela is widely varying offering many challenging obstacles to any who wish to occupy the nation. Coastlines, mountains, jungles, swamps & multiple borders offer a variety of challenges
Venezuela has 2,800 km of coastline [CIA factbook], and the Orinoco River, which is a navigable river, nearly bisects the country. There are mountains in the northwest & southeast. 57% of Venezuela is ‘natural forest’ with the southern portion being both mountainous & part of the Amazon Rain Forest [19].
To the Northwest & southeast are large mountain ranges. The north western peaks are over 16,000 feet (higher than the Rockies), The southeastern mountains reach heights of over 9,000 feet and share borders with Colombia, Brazil and Guyana[15]. The area is described as “largely an upland surface of rounded hills and narrow valleys formed from ancient crystalline rocks”[15].
In short a nightmare for any invading or occupying force. The United States hasn’t had a large-scale engagement in a jungle environment since Vietnam and The Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS) warns that training is currently inadequate [43]. Although technology has advanced dramatically since Vietnam, much of the current military doctrine was shaped by decades of combat in the Middle East, its applicability & effectiveness in a jungle environment is largely untested.
Size
Mountains
Forests & Swamps
Ports
Military of Venezuela
Airforce
Venezuela reportedly has as many as ‘140’ aircraft including trainers, helicopters and fighters [22]. Most notably are the SU-30MK2 (of which they have 24 [23] ). These 4.5 generation fighters were acquired in the mid 2000s, though recent struggles may leave many of them grounded, The National Interest estimates that fewer than 50% are operational. These modern aircraft are certainly formidable, but the limited quantity would quickly leave them overwhelmed by the combined aircraft of the USAF, US Navy & Marines.
Air Defense
Maduro claims to have more than 5000 Igla-S MANPAD systems [24], these weapons have a 5-7km range and can ‘destroy targets’ at altitude up to 3.5km [25a]. Venezuela also has 12 S-300 batteries, 9 BUK systems & 44 pechora units [26]. The S-300 is fairly capable, the others should not be written off either, the Pechora was responsible for downing an F-117 stealth bomber in 1999 [27], the difference today is the stand-off capabilities of modern air-to-ground munitions. I think in most scenarios US fixed wing aircraft will be operating outside of range but if we do begin using the most common bomb, a JDAM equipped MK80 series , our craft would be within range (~15 miles [28] ) of several of these systems.
Missiles
C-802 Short range Anti-ship cruise missile has a range of 65 Nautical miles [25b], meaning our carriers would be operating outside of strike range (assuming the missiles themselves are on the mainland). For comparison the southern most dot in the below picture is more than 100 miles from the coast. Another missile in the Venezuelan arsenal is the Iranian CM-90 acquired in 2024, the weapon has a range of ~55miles [29], again allowing our ships to operate outside of their range.
Both of these missile systems can be either ground or ship launched. Venezuela has at least 7 fast attack boats [30] capable of launching their anti-ship missiles. That said it is highly unlikely the boats could slip within range for a launch.
Drones
Given the extent of the known cooperation between Venezuela & Iran, it is reasonable to assume they have access to a similar repertoire of drone technology. Venezuela has reportedly been manufacturing their own drones since 2012 and may be manufacturing Shahed drones for Russia [32]. The potential flow of drones from Venezuela is notable as it implies surplus & perhaps reveals some additional motivations of the US.
Looking back at “A Wider War: Iran’ we see that the range of some variants of Shahed drone is ~1500 miles. The graphic above shows all of our ships south of Puerto Rico, so within 500 miles of Venezuela. This means the Shahed drones are capable of reaching our carriers even if launched from the southern mountainous jungles of Venezuela. Importantly, while the fighters mentioned above are technologically impressive, they are expensive & finite. The cost of a Shahed drone is in the tens of thousands of dollars, and they offer a much more flexible launch profile than a jet, making them a more likely ‘sustained’ problem for the US if the conflict were to escalate further. It is as of now unclear how many drones Venezuela has in its arsenal and worth noting they would need sufficient quantity to ‘swarm’ our vessels to have a notable impact.
The Politics of Regime Change
As is customary with US regime change policy the ‘end-state’ planning in Venezuela seems to rely on lots of hand waving. Trump stated that Maduro ‘offered everything’ [34] yet Trump still seems bent on war, a reality that will like sour the populations views of any US led regime change. The US ‘leader of choice’, Maria Machado, is a US/Zionist puppet decorated with an undeserved (and perhaps illegal) Nobel Peace Prize [35].
While she and the United States claim Maduro is illegitimate, voting trends leave at least some room for doubt. In 2004 Chavez survived a recall referendum (with ~6 million votes), in 2007 he lost a push for Constitutional amendments in his favor (he had 4.36 million votes in that effort). In 2015 ‘national assembly’ elections, Maduro’s party lost again with 5.62 million votes [36]. The 2024 election, which is disputed, had an ‘official’ tally of 6.4 million votes for Maduro and 5.2 for his opposition (Gonzalez). Comando Con Venezuela is a group “established to support the candidacy of Maria Corina Machado” [37] and offers a tally showing the opposition (Gonzalez) winning 68% of the votes (7.4 million to Maduros 3.3 million) [38].
All that said, there certainly was ‘questionable’ irregularities to say the least [39], without spending a huge amount of time digging through ‘the records’ I am left doubtful of any narrative.
Regardless of which narrative you subscribe to, the reality is that 30-52% of the population supports Maduro. That is a significantly large enough number to make the stability of ‘post regime change’ Venezuela doubtful. Machado was barred from running for office for 15 years, which initially sounds horribly corrupt, but she openly supported US sanctions on Venezuela [40]. Support of sanctions, which most often hurt the citizenry, will likely be viewed as treasonous by at least some of the people. The opposition itself is described as “splintered” [41] and some of the challenges faced in rallying supporters may be the result of these same sanctions . Reuters cited ‘voter apathy as people struggle to afford food and other basics’ [42] as a challenge for the opposition. Make no mistake, without sanctions socialism would make life tough for the people, but by applying sanctions , we give the Maduro government an easy scapegoat.
Conclusion
The diverse terrain, thick vegetation and difficult mountain regions provide refuge for any government forces or ‘defeated’ resistance groups. While I believe we would overcome and disable the ‘exquisite’ platforms like the SU-30 Fighters, the drones will likely continue to be a problem. Given Venezuela’s cooperation with Russia & Iran, it is reasonable to assume they are learning lessons on how to survive a western led bombardment geared at regime change. We cannot forget that the Houthis have found refuge in Yemen’s mountain ranges & withstood a prolonged US backed Saudi campaign AND a direct confrontation with the US Navy in which the US Navy was effectively defeated (withdrew without accomplishing stated goals).
I believe the biggest threat to America isn’t ‘the nation of Venezuela’ but the failed state of Venezuela. Were Maduros government to collapse under the weight of our aggression, I am not convinced that we would smoothly transition to an American puppet government. We would almost certainly see increased waves of migration, both to their neighboring countries and to the United States. The ensuing instability of Venezuela could have a further destabilizing influence on the region. Perhaps the biggest ‘direct threat’ would be the proliferation of military technology (mainly drones & MANPADS) to the various ‘narco-terror’ groups operating throughout South America.
As I mentioned in ‘American Victory’ we need a ‘SMART’ plan if we are to engage in ‘adventures abroad’. If Maduro has ‘offering everything’ why are we not accepting that deal and decreasing the chance of creating another failed state? If it is about ‘drugs’ why are the efforts not focused on countries with larger roles in drug trafficking? Perhaps we are looking to punish Russia’s allies, perhaps we want to ‘flex’ in ‘our backyard’.
Regardless of the motivation, we must ask ourselves: what do we actually gain? Is it worth the lives & resources it will cost and, if history is a guide, are we willing to accept the chaos that comes with another regime change war ?
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Resources
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ODIN
https://www.cnn.com/2025/11/13/americas/venezuela-military-us-tensions-explainer-intl-latam
https://maritime-executive.com/article/venezuela-deploys-iranian-missile-boats-to-fend-off-u-s-navy
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comando_Con_Venezuela#cite_note-candidate_Machado-1
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Venezuelan_presidential_election